Before COVID-19 began, if you had asked me, “what is Black Swan”? I would have replied, “a type of black bird”. Since COVID-19’s disruption, I have come to understand that “Black Swan” could probably be the period we are in right now. Dire times usually come with their own lessons, it seems.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor, and former Wall Street trader explained a ‘Black Swan’ event as an event that:

• is unpredictable,
• has widespread ramifications,
• It provides hindsight bias – after the event has occurred, people will assert that it was indeed explainable and (somewhat) predictable.

For now, the first two descriptions make this COVID-19 period classify as a ‘Black Swan’ event.  The world was moving along, determining global economic forecasts, fighting climate change, and making foreign allies, while in no way particularly envisioning an imminent disruption of a pandemic. Top economies are fighting to minimize the effects of the disruption caused by COVID-19. How the aftermath will continue to affect the world is still unfolding. And now, thanks to our outstanding, hard-working healthcare workers and scientists who are racing to develop a vaccine, we hope COVID-19 goes away soon. Afterward, conclusions on probabilities and predictions of what the future holds will ensue.

Taleb also states in his book “The Impact of the Highly Improbable” that a “Black Swan” event’s objective should be identifying areas of vulnerability in order to “turn the Black Swans white.” Vulnerability in health care systems has been revealed around the world. This vulnerability is especially evident in Africa, where there have been warnings of more deaths if we do not take caution. Even developed countries’ health systems were not prepared for the novel virus. Another vulnerability is apparent in Africa’s mounting debt system. A team of Africans had to be sent to the international community to request debt relief to enable African countries to free up capital to fight COVID-19. 

The COVID-19 is a new strain of virus that has not previously been identified in humans. There are currently no vaccines developed for treatment or prevention. It typically takes several months or years to develop a new type of vaccine. What is more fearful about COVID-19 is the alarming rate at which it spreads. The rate the virus was spreading meant that governments had to enforce lockdown measures to protect citizens and provide safety measures. The lockdown slowed or even stopped economic activities in most countries.

Pre COVID-19

Before COVID-19, economists were forecasting their economic future. The African Development Bank Group reported that Africa’s economic growth stabilized at 3.4 percent in 2019 and expected to pick up to 3.9 percent in 2020 and 4.1 percent in 2021. The European Commission as of 2019 summer forecasted then EU GDP to be 1.6% in 2020, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago predicted the USA’s growth rate of real GDP to be 1.9% in 2020. Now, with the disruption of COVID-19, these forecasts are probably no longer feasible. The economic predictions do not seem so rosy. In light of the developments, the only predictable thing now is a possible recession, which could have devastating impacts in Africa.

Africa can use COVID-19’s disruption as an opportunity to reset or change the course of its developments. Quoting Albert Einstein, “in the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity.” Seize the current opportunity to recognize the vulnerabilities, and work towards improvement in those areas. By identifying and improving some of our vulnerabilities, we could perhaps turn our “black swans” white and be better prepared when the next pandemic occurs. One can only prepare for a black swan event by building strong systems.

Here are a few areas Africa can start with:

Agriculture

Usually, when the plan of a lockdown becomes evident in any location, people rush to stock up on food items (panic buying). After a short time, supermarkets shelves become empty. If a country depends on the importation of food, a pandemic like the current one could be more devastating. Africa imports $35bn in food annually. The COVID-19 pandemic affected supply chains and trade. What if CO.VID-19 continued for a more extended period? How would Africa feed itself? Now is the time to consider investing heavily in agriculture so we can feed ourselves. The current realities show that African governments should take deliberate measures to increase Africa’s food production outputs.  

Measures taken will need to consider climate change and its impact on Agriculture in Africa. The Africa Development Bank review of the Nigerian economy reported that the major constraints to farmers are sporadic flooding and conflicts between herdsmen and local farmers. Somalia declared a state of emergency due to severe locust infestation, which posed a threat to food security. Climate change effects on agriculture in Africa is a concern that needs attention.

Nigeria should give more attention to the agriculture sector to develop a sustainable and profitable agriculture sector. Investment, innovation, and technology in the Agricultural sector should be highly supported now more than ever. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain when Africa feeds itself. While the COVID-19 virus is impacting economies, we should use this time as an opportunity to diversify the African economies by investing in agriculture.

Brain Drain

•  In October 2016, a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted that “migrants [from sub-Saharan Africa] in OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries could increase from about 7 million in 2013 to about 34 million by 2050.” Adding that, “the migration of young and educated workers takes a large toll on a region whose human capital is already scarce.” The migrants leave for education, work, and better opportunities for them and their families. In Nigeria, we consider the “Oyibo’s passport” the best gift a parent can give to their child. Understandable because more and fairer opportunities are available in developed countries. Low wages, sub-standard living conditions, underemployment, lack of research facilities, civil unrest, and disintegrating political situations are all reasons that influence the brain drain Africa is experiencing. Even unskilled youths are exiting through Libya to enter Europe, despite the harsh slavery conditions in Libya. These youths are risking death in search of better opportunities in Europe. That is why promoting entrepreneurship in Africa is essential. Governments must also create a business enabling environment to help entrepreneurs and SMEs succeed. If the causes of Africa’s emigration are addressed, Africa could not only save its youths dying in the Mediterranean and Libya, but it could also retain its educated population who can contribute to economic development.  

Curbing Africa’s brain drain issue can further be bolstered by taking intentional actions to minimize and eliminate corruption. Africa is suffering from the effects of corruption, and this is affecting the economic development of the continent. Corruption creates a boomerang effect that prevents the proper management of resources. Taking actions to fight corruption could help create a developed society and cut the brain drain.

Foreign Aid 

According to a 2014 report, Africa receives about $133.7 billion each year from aid, grants, and loans. Unfortunately, the level of economic growth in Africa has not mirrored the financial assistance received thus far. In a country like Nigeria, where the corruption level is high(Transparency International ranks Nigeria146/180), and government mismanages funds, continuous financial aid could fuel the reckless management of the nation’s resources. The idea that financial aid from the international community cushions the quagmire of corruption is unreliable. Instead of giving countries aids and loans with no accountability, evaluate African governments’ good governance practices.  Africa has abundant resources to develop itself. Mismanaging resources lead to a lack of economic development, and the citizens suffer the consequences.

So, amid the COVID-19 crisis, Africa has an opportunity to reset its development plan by focusing on agriculture, curbing the brain drain, and limiting its dependence on foreign aid. These are only some, not all, of the areas that need focus. We can certainly add more, including healthcare, education, etc., but this article is dealing with a few. After a pandemic hit, most countries are too busy taking care of their citizens to rush to another country’s help. Remember, black swan events cannot be predicted; a government can only prepare for it by building robust systems. Here is a chance to turn a black swan event white.